On fourth-down decisions, unpredictability matters

The Detroit Lions have developed a reputation under coach Dan Campbell for frequently attempting fourth-down conversions, a strategy that has recently faced challenges. In the 2023 NFC Championship, the Lions failed a crucial fourth and two, leading to a shift in momentum favoring the San Francisco 49ers, who then scored a touchdown. As of 2025, the Lions have continued this approach, but defenses have adjusted, anticipating these plays as a regular part of their strategy against Detroit.

In their latest game against the Green Bay Packers, the Lions failed to convert on two fourth-down attempts, contributing to a 0-7 record on fourth downs in their last two losses. This strategic predictability is seen as a disadvantage, as opponents now prepare specifically for these scenarios. Despite recent failures, Campbell maintains confidence in the play-calling and shows no indication of altering this aggressive strategy. The Lions' predictability on fourth down has impacted their success, with the team now facing challenges in the playoff race with five games