The big red flag in Fernando Mendoza's NFL Draft profile

Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, the 2025 Heisman Trophy winner, is projected as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, likely heading to the Las Vegas Raiders. Mendoza led Indiana to a 16-0 season and a national championship, amassing 3,535 passing yards with 41 touchdowns against six interceptions. Despite his success, concerns about his ability to avoid sacks and negative plays persist, potentially impacting his transition to the NFL.

Mendoza's career negative play rate (NegPL%) stands at 8.4%, tied for 14th highest among 181 quarterbacks analyzed, and his pressure-to-sack rate (P2S%) is 21.1%, raising questions about his potential as a franchise quarterback. His final college season saw improvements in these metrics, with a NegPL% of 6.6% and a P2S% of 18.9%, yet he struggled against top competition, with higher rates against Power 4