Are salary reductions for Mike Williams, Joey Bosa in everyone’s best interest
Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images
The cap culling by the Chargers has begun. Could creative solutions keep Joey Bosa and Mike Williams on the team another season? In mid-December, it was announced that the 2024 salary cap outlook was a little more bleak than previously imagined. Although this didn’t greatly affect many teams, the Chargers had one of the largest projected cap deficits, so this made journey to cap compliance $14,000,000 more difficult than originally thought. Here, we detailed the significance of this news. This ultimately meant the Chargers would start the offseason needing to clear approximately $45,000,000 in salary cap charges before they could explore trades as a viable option to clear the additional cap required for signing free agents, rookies, and maintaining an in-season budget.
Joe Hortiz struck his first move today, working collaboratively with Corey Linsley towards a team-friendly transaction. Linsley agreed to lower his salary to the veteran minimum - not to be confused with restructuring his base salary into a signing bonus. Although it hasn’t been announced, the only logical explanation for this move is Corey deciding on his retirement and sharing this news with the front office. He likely then agreed to reduce his “salary” to the minimum, and hold off on filing his retirement paperwork until June. In effect, this prevents the prorated signing bonus portion of his 2025 cap hit from accelerating into this year’s budget. It doesn’t hurt Corey a bit, since he has no intention on playing and thus earning that base salary, none of which was guaranteed.
Now, onto Joe Hortiz’s next moves. Although Linsley’s move lowers the cap compliance equation from a $45 million problem to a $35.5 million problem, that’s still a significant gap to bridge. Furthermore, here is a quick summary of what the overall cap health of the Chargers is currently sitting at:
This is a summary of the Chargers cap situation. Palmer and ASJ performances bonuses, updated rookie class budget, in-season moves/PS budget, and a full 53 man roster included. This is post-Linsley's reduction.Still have $35.5M to clear by New League Year.Buckle up. pic.twitter.com/4QSxuiWncF— Kyle DeDiminicantanio (@TheKyleDe) February 19, 2024
So, what’s next on the docket?
The Curious Cases of Joey Bosa and Mike Williams
Joey Bosa and Mike Williams are both in extremely interesting situations.
Both have been stellar for the Chargers when healthy, but both are obvious cap casualties as their inability to stay on the field has been an issue for the Bolts in two consecutive seasons.
Both have been teased by various pundits and fans as trade candidates - but it’s highly unlikely the Chargers can achieve cap compliance without first cutting at least one of these players. Even if they could find a trade partner - what would their values actually be if they were cut? Is any team rushing to sign Mike Williams to a multi-year deal before he’s cleared a physical following ACL surgery in late October? Will any teams sign him for close to his $20 million salary this year, or would the market force Mike to take a major pay cut in 2024? Joey Bosa’s cap hits of $22 and $25.36 million over the next two years are also major deterrents to any team thinking of trading for him, after watching him limp through ten starts over the last two years. Is he worth more than the $8 million or $10 million one-year deals Jadeveon Clowney signed with the Browns in 2021 and 2022 when Clowney’s market was impacted with injury concerns?
It’s very difficult to believe either of these players would actually benefit from hitting the open market in 2024 as a cap casualty, as their injuries have suppressed their values to career lows.
Would Pay Reductions, Staying in LA benefit Williams and Bosa?
Joe Hortiz might be wise to give Williams and Bosa notice that to avoid cuts, they would need to negotiate salary reductions, and encourage them to seek out trade partners if they believe other clubs see value at their current prices.
Allowing their agents to engage in approved external negotiations could help Mike and Joey understand the reality of their current value, and make the most of two unfortunate situations.
Mike Williams - An obvious pay cut candidate
Aside from Chris Godwin’s extension in Tampa Bay, when has a player signed a decent deal inside the one-year mark of an ACL surgery? Even after Odell Beckham’s heroics in the Rams’ run to a Super Bowl championship, his torn ACL prevented him from signing with a team in 2022, despite rumors of interest leading up to the 2022 playoffs. While the timing of Odell’s injury made it clear he wouldn’t be ready at the start of the 2021 season, Mike’s late October surgery doesn’t put him in a great position either, only giving him four extra months of recovery towards the next season than Odell had.
When Odell finally signed with the Ravens, over a year removed from his injury and able to engage in all offseason activities at full-speed, he still signed for $5 million less than the cash Williams is owed despite having reached far higher peaks in his career and being a key cog on a championship team.
It should be obvious to Williams and his representation that hitting the open market would not work out in their best interest.
A creative alternative Joe Hortiz could explore is offering Mike Williams half his current salary, but fully guaranteed. Executing a max restructure on this new $10,000,000 salary would create $17,032,000 in total savings, but would push $1,758,000 of prorated bonus money into the next four seasons’ budget sheets.
If Mike and the Chargers separated in 2025, those four years of $1,758,000 allocations would accelerate into one dead cap hit of $7,032,000. However, the Chargers’ cap situation is much better beyond 2024, as they currently have over $112 million in space available.
If Mike returned to form, the Chargers would be in an excellent position. Mike could potentially sign elsewhere and net the Chargers as high as a 4th round compensatory pick in 2026’s NFL Draft, or they could extend him. By extending him, the $1,758,000 yearly prorations would stay in place, a very mild trade-off for the cap flexibility the restructure provided in a bleak financial situation.
As a show of good faith, Joe Hortiz could also extend a guarantee against the franchise tag, so all parties could move forward knowing Mike Williams would be afforded an opportunity to maximize his value in 2024 and sign a long term deal in 2025.
Justin Herbert has amazing chemistry with Mike Williams, and there is absolutely no threat to Mike Williams’ position as WR1B on the Chargers’ roster. The Bolts could always opt to draft one of the top receivers at #5, but it would still be Mike’s spot to lose, and the rookie would likely settle in as a stellar third receiver on the depth chart before the Chargers moved on from either Keenan Allen or Mike Williams in 2025.
Simply put, there is not a quarterback in the league that will replicate the chemistry Herbert and Mike have and put him in a better position to get paid in 2025. This fact is amplified by the fact that Mike likely won’t be at full speed through most of the offseason, hurting his opportunity to get in a groove with another team’s signal caller. It’s a win-win for everyone involved.
Here’s a breakdown of what this contract would look like:
I believe the best solution for LAC and for Mike Williams is to meet halfway on his remaining salary, but fully guarantee it.Restructure all but the vet min to a bonus spread over 5 years.Saves over 17M, pushes 7M in DC to future.MW becomes comp pick eligible in '24 pic.twitter.com/cmmVoxYNu9— Kyle DeDiminicantanio (@TheKyleDe) February 19, 2024
Does Joey Bosa situation offer the same opportunity?
Joey Bosa is in a completely different category, because displaying his value in 2025 isn’t as reliant on his chemistry with another player. His health has limited him to only ten starts over the last two years. He has flashes of his former self when rushing the passer, but his run defense hasn’t looked the same in Brandon Staley’s scheme.
The next scheme change in Los Angeles may hurt Bosa even more, as Minter’s defense relies on lighter EDGEs with versatile coverage ability. While Staley’s defense wasn’t built on EDGEs dropping back in coverage, he asked Joey to do it enough times to confirm it’s not an area of the field Joey has any business in.
If Bosa’s representatives start exploring a trade, he’s going to need to find out what teams are willing to pay him. Because of his lack of production and health over the last two years, it’s very likely he wouldn’t clear $10,000,000 on the open market either.
If Joe Hortiz wants to get clever with Joey and his team, they should work collaboratively on a trade that gets Joey to a team in “win-now” mode, and agree to eat salary to do so. Similarly to Mike Williams, if Joey were to agree to reduce his salary to a fully guaranteed $10,000,000, Hortiz could execute the same strategy as with Williams. Bosa would take a $8,790,000 signing bonus, $7,032,000 would be spread across the years 2025-2028, but ultimately accelerate into 2025’s cap sheet when Bosa is traded with post-June designation.
Bosa’s contract actually runs through 2025, so to facilitate this deal Joey and Hortiz could agree to “void” 2025 while reworking this deal, giving Joey the ability to negotiate a long-term deal in 2025. This would add appeal to the team trading for Joey, as they could benefit from the compensatory pick formula if Joey signed elsewhere.
Here is what the contract would look like:
Who is going to trade for Joey with a 22M cap hit?if Horitz allows Joey's reps to pursue a trade prior to cutting, it's likely that teams would reject his price; his value is closer to 1yr/$10M given his injured plagued szns.LAC gives that GTD, trades to SF on the min salary. pic.twitter.com/Xr9ZMKEH8t— Kyle DeDiminicantanio (@TheKyleDe) February 19, 2024
San Francisco makes perfect sense as a trade partner, and has a bevy of compensatory picks to leverage into a trade for an elite talent with a plummeted market. Should the Chargers take on almost $8.8 million in dead cap between 2024 and 2025, it’s reasonable to believe a vet-minimum Joey Bosa could return a third round pick. Joey would also be incentivized to help make this deal happen, as he would love to play alongside his brother, and the 49ers have cap struggles of their own. Working with Hortiz to make this happen helps Bosa get cash the 49ers otherwise may not have afforded for him, and gets him on a team fresh off a Super Bowl appearance.
Net Effect of these Two Moves
I try to avoid the hypotheticals that are outside of team control when addressing cap compliance options, especially those discussing pay cuts. These deals seem like such positive wins for all parties that it felt reasonable to make this exception, especially after Corey Linsley’s reduction.
Executing both of these moves would result in an immediate $36,064,000 in savings, and an additional $415,000 when Joey is traded (and his contract is replaced by a rookie minimum). It also likely brings a 2024 third round pick to Los Angeles.
Joey’s dead cap in 2025 would increase from $7,711,688 to $14,643,668, but this would still free up $18,328,000 in ‘25 cap space because of his $32,971,668 cap number currently on the books for that year. Should Mike Williams depart the team in 2025, his accelerated dead cap hit charge of $7,032,000 would still leave LAC with $11,296,000 in 2025 cap savings after these moves, and hopefully provides a compensatory pick in 2026.
So, there’s the pitch Joe Hortiz. Make these moves happen. They would get the Chargers cap compliant immediately, add draft capital to your war chest, and eliminate the immediate need for a receiver.
It’s a win-win for everyone.
